Thursday, April 24, 2008

Dems, the Primary, and My Prediction

Well the PA primary is over and time for a few thoughts. My impression of the entire Democratice Primary race is one of watching a train wreck occur in slow motion. Why the Democratic ledership allowed these two to become dominant and the final choices in this race is absolutely mind boggling. But it is really too late, there is no white knight to ride into the convention and rescue the Dems from their own foolishness.

First, Hillary. Its clear she is determined to drive the bus off the cliff. She'll pursue this nomination to the bitter end, even though there is a miniscule chance that she will end the primary season with either a greater share of the popular vote or more pledged delegates. I suppose the strategy is to make a play for the Superdelegates to award her the nomination, and when they don't and Obama looses, make the pitch for the nomination in 2012 that they should'a listened to her. The results in Pennsylvania showed that her support came from the same demographics and in almost identical percentages and in Ohio - net effect no real gains. Her sole chance to win the nomination appears to rest on convincing the superdelegates that Obama is unelectable. Frankly, I think she is right on point but for reasons that are different than hers. She believes that the negative issues out there, i.e., Reverend Wright, Bittergate, William Ayers, etc. will sink him. But really the polling data suggests that the reason he would loose is that if Obama gets the nomination, substantial percentages of her supporters (on the order of 30%) would either not support him or would not vote. But the alternative of Hillary gaining the nomination is even worse. A 49% dissapproval out of the blocks, hard polarization of viewpoints within the electorate concerning Hillary and Bill and the Clinton scene, and more intellegently, her positions on the issues will sink her.

Obama, on the other hand, is charismatic, dynamic and inspiring. Unfortunately, all of the aforementioned negative issues and more to come will be on him like a stink from day one of the general election campaign. And, more troubling, he really does seem to lack substance. It appears that there truly has been a media love fest with Obama for the past several months, but I think that even the MSM is now getting a clue and starting to see the stains on his background and the lack of real substantive plans and direction in how to achieve all of the really inspiring things that he talks about. Unfortunately (or fortunately) I think that he out managed Hillary during this primary campaign, and he is now beyond her reach. It seems unlikely in the extreme that the Superdelegates will throw him under the bus in favor of Hillary, alienate an huge constituency (African Americans), and expose themselves to charges of disenfranchisment of the electorate and stealing an election.

My prediction - Obama will be the Democratic nominee. McCain will win the general election, and win BIG!

No comments: